Walker’s Chances of Beating Warnock With 100 Days to Midterm: Polls

Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker aims to defeat Georgia’s Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock and win back a seat the GOP narrowly lost in a January 2021 runoff—but with 100 days until the midterm election in November, the former football star appears to be trailing the liberal incumbent.

Walker has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, in a race that could also determine which party controls the Senate. Meanwhile, Walker hopes to maintain Democrats‘ momentum in Georgia.

In 2020, President Joe Biden became the first Democratic presidential candidate to win in the state since 1992. Meanwhile, Warnock and fellow Senator Jon Ossoff managed to flip both of Georgia’s Senate seats for Democrats in close runoff elections.

Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker
Polls show Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker in an uphill battle against Democratic incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock. Above to the left, Warnock speaks during a Senate committee hearing on Capitol Hill on March 3 in Washington, D.C. Above to the right, Walker is seen on July 10 in Hampton, Georgia.
Tom Williams/James Gilbert/Getty Images

While polling had previously shown Walker and Warnock in a neck-and-neck contest, a recent scandal involving how many children Walker has appears to have affected the former football star’s standing with voters. The incumbent Democrat has pulled ahead with a lead over his GOP rival, but the race is still close.

The current Real Clear Politics average of Georgia polls shows Warnock ahead by about 4.4 points. On average, the incumbent Democrat has the support of 47.6 percent of Georgians and Walker is backed by 43.2 percent.

A poll conducted by Fox News from July 22 to 26 had Walker down by 4 points. The Trump-backed candidate had the backing of just 42 percent of registered voters compared to 46 percent who supported Warnock. The survey included 901 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.

Polling by WXIA-TV/SurveyUSA from July 21 to 24 showed the incumbent Democrat with a larger lead of 9 points. Warnock received support from 48 percent of respondents and Walker was backed by just 39 percent. The poll included 604 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.3 points.

Prior to that, an Atlanta Journal-Constitution survey carried out from July 14 to 22 showed Warnock ahead by 3 points. The poll had the Democratic senator at 46 percent and the Republican challenger at 43 percent. Just over 900 likely voters were polled and the margin of error was plus or minus 3.3 percent.

If Walker manages to pull off a win, it could shift control of the Senate back to Republican control. The legislative chamber is currently evenly split, but Democrats maintain the slimmest possible of majorities with Vice President Kamala Harris able to cast tie-breaking votes. If Democrats lose even one seat without gaining another held by the GOP, the Republicans will once again return to holding the majority.

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