Michigan vs. Iowa college football preview, prediction

Week 5 college football schedule: Michigan vs. Iowa

How to watch

When: Oct. 1

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern

TV: Fox network

Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

Related: College football scores | College football rankings | College football schedule

Odds, point spread, betting lines

Line: Michigan -10.5

O/U: 42

Moneyline: MICH -500 IOWA +310

FPI pick: Michigan 76.8%

Michigan vs. Iowa: What you need to know

1. Michigan will run. The Wolverines rank 11th in college football in total rushing production on the year and lead the nation with 17 touchdowns on the ground. Behind a ferocious protection unit, Blake Corum leads the way in the backfield, over 5 ypc the last 2 games, scoring 7 of his 9 TDs in the last 2 weeks, and coming off a 243-yard showing against Maryland. Now he lines up against Iowa’s 6th ranked run-stop (73.0 ypg).

2. Unstoppable force vs. Immovable object. In total numbers, Iowa is the No. 6 defense in college football, allowing 236.3 yards per game and is No. 1 nationally surrendering all of 5.8 points per game. Even in the air, the Hawkeyes are solid, placing 14th with under 164 ypg given up. Michigan is good for almost 490 yards each time out, more than 230 rushing, and is No. 2 at 50.0 ppg. 

3. Iowa: World beaters? It may not look the part, but Iowa is actually pretty dangerous against elite teams at home recently. Iowa is 5-1 in its last 6 games against AP top 10 teams: in 2008 vs. No. 3 Penn State, in 2010 vs. No. 5 Michigan State, in 2016 vs. No. 2 Michigan, in 2017 vs. No. 3 Ohio State, and in 2021 vs. No. 4 Penn State. Now comes 4th ranked Michigan against the team it embarrassed in last year’s Big Ten title game.

Michigan vs. Iowa: Fast Facts

+ Michigan is 4th nationally in pass defense, 5th in scoring defense, and 8th in total defense

+ Iowa’s 1st ranked scoring defense has allowed 23 total points in 4 games, its lowest mark in 66 years

+ Michigan is 28-9-2 against Iowa when itself ranked

+ Iowa is No. 4 in red zone defense (.571)

+ UM is 51-8 under Jim Harbaugh when scoring first and 14-16 when not

+ Iowa has won 3 of 14 when Michigan was ranked but has won the last 4 overall at home in the series

+ Michigan is 112-13 under Harbaugh when scoring 20-plus points and 2-14 when scoring fewer than 20

+ Iowa is 137-37 under Kirk Ferentz when scoring first

+ Michigan is 35-2 when winning the turnover margin under Harbaugh and 11-18 when losing it

+ Iowa is 153-20 when leading after 3 quarters under Ferentz and 19-85 when trailing

+ Michigan is No. 1 nationally with 2.25 penalties per game and 21 penalty yards per game

+ Iowa leads the Big Ten and is 19th nationally with 12 sacks

+ UM has won 10 of its last 11 against Big Ten teams

+ Iowa is 11th nationally with 4.25 penalties per game and 6th best with 28.75 penalty yards per game

+ Michigan is 38-1 in its last 39 when it has a 100-yard rusher

+ Iowa has 7 turnovers in the last 3 games

Michigan vs. Iowa Prediction

A lot is made of Iowa’s defensive success this season, as it should be, but let’s not forget what Michigan has done on that side of the ball, too.

Take the opponents into consideration, but Michigan is already 7th nationally by allowing 11.0 points per game, has held opponents to fewer than 10 points in three of its four outings, and is 8th in total defensive production.

Iowa’s offense ranks 12th worst nationally at 17 points per game, is 116th in rushing, and 124th in passing yards per game.

Michigan will have a harder time than usual getting its momentum early as the Hawkeyes clog up the running lanes, but McCarthy and his skill pieces have the power and the agility to wear Iowa down to convert crucial third downs and move the chains.

College Football HQ Prediction: Michigan 27, Iowa 10

According to AP top 25 poll

  1. Georgia
  2. Alabama
  3. Ohio State
  4. Michigan
  5. Clemson
  6. USC
  7. Kentucky
  8. Tennessee
  9. Oklahoma State
  10. NC State
  11. Penn State
  12. Utah
  13. Oregon
  14. Ole Miss
  15. Washington
  16. Baylor
  17. Texas A&M
  18. Oklahoma
  19. BYU
  20. Arkansas
  21. Minnesota
  22. Wake Forest
  23. Florida State
  24. Pittsburgh
  25. Kansas State

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